Regular reader Phil shares his calculations with us today as Cardinal Couple recovers from the Belk Bowl....
In this article, I am going to present some calculations to back up statements I've made in comments to Cardinal Couple via e-mails and messages. Mind you, I'm not singling out or "picking" on any specific players or individuals, just presenting a calculating method. I've disagreed with the three guard lineup Louisville has played. My disagreement goes beyond merely the starting line-up, as Walz is keeping three perimeter players on the floor at all times. One indicator of this decision involves Walz's playing "small" in the post. Last season, Hines and Vails together averaged 40 minutes per game. This season, Warren and Vails together are averaging only 29 minutes per game. Since Walz is playing only two "bigs" at a time, he in effect has Dyer at times playing the "5".
I believe that this 3-2 lineup is bad both offensively (lack of motion/screening
by inside players; too much outside shooting.) and defensively (can't stop other teams' post/giving up too many offensive rebounds). These negative results will become evident in conference play. Notwithstanding Reid's injury, I would still play three "bigs" at a time, with one modification: Since Slaughter has shown that she can rebound, I would classify her as a "big."
In support of my position, I have done an effectiveness per minute ("EPM") calculation for each player through the first 13 games. Here's how the formula works:
-A player gets ONE point for all the "good" things - points scored, rebounds, assists, blocks and steals.
-A player loses ONE point for all the "bad" things - missed shots, free throws, turnovers.
I then divide the resulting number by minutes played to get the EMP.
This typically results in a number less than 1. Example: Shoni Schimmel, on the "good" side has 152 points, 47 rebounds 53 assists, 3 blocks and 30 steals. This adds up to 285. On the "bad" side she has 96 missed shots, (including 4 missed free throws) and 37 turnovers for a total of 133.
285-133=152. Divide 152 by 333 minutes played and you get .456.
(Note that a score of 1.0 or higher would be the equivalent of a player who played all 40 minutes, scored 40 points on 20 for 20 shooting and did nothing else (no rebounds, assists, etc.) Delaware's Elena Donne is at an incredible 1.09 for the season.
So, here's how the Lady Cards stack up:
Reid is at .783. (Whoever posted that her loss wasn't significant had too much something in their egg-nog.)
Warren is next at .646 (She needs more minutes. Getting just 17 a game.)
Dyer .526
Slaughter .504
Smith .463
Shoni .457
So, based on these calculations, this is your starting five. If you commit to having three bigs on the floor, here's how the substitution pattern should go:
-Vails for Warren. Vails is at .275
-Hammond for Dyer. Hammond is at .396 (higher than either Taylor or Burke.)
-Taylor for Slaughter. Taylor is at .356
-Burke for Smith. Burke is at .372.
-Jude for Shoni. Jude is at .205.
Shelby Harper is at .085, so we give the backup point guard role to Jude.
My point with all this is then belief that without a significant reallocation in minutes, I think it will be very difficult to replicate last season's record in the BIG EAST.
Best wishes for the New Year,
PDX Phil.
(Phil's comments do not necessarily reflect the viewpoints of the writers or staff at CARDINAL COUPLE...but he makes some very valid and astute points in his out line. We'll grade Phil out at .750)
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IF you watched it last night...the University of Louisville football team at least tried to come back for a 21 point deficit...but Charlie Strong's guys need offensive linemen. In the worst way. Teddy Bridgewater resembled a tardy commuter trying to catch the light rail in a crowd of people.
They could use a few defensive backs as well.
Still, a brave comeback. The crowd, officials, public address announcer
and foodservice folks were all pro-NC State. I guess that's what happens when you play a bowl game in North Carolina against a North Carolina school. Plus, it was cold.
The fond memories of St. Pete and the Beef O' Brady Bowl will long outlive last night's disaster.
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